DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE, REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE IN CHINA
DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE, REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE IN CHINA
Junfang Sun; Zexu Jing
Soochow University
Copyright © 2023 by Cayley Nielson Press, Inc.
ISBN: 978-1-957274-13-3
Cayley Nielson Press Scholarly Monograph Series Book Code No.: 213-10-1
US$168.50
Preface
The Seventh National Population Census (NPC) results show that China's population structure has undergone profound changes. While the rates of education penetration and urbanization continue to rise, issues such as population aging and low fertility rates have become prominent. Population is the core factor influencing economic growth, and its structural changes will bring numerous opportunities and challenges for China's future economic development. Currently, most of the research on the economic effects of population structure mainly focus on constructing a certain static panels to analyze certain demographic factors, lacking consideration of the wholeness and correlation aspects of population structure. Moreover, the design of models seldom incorporate the intrinsic dynamics and convergence of economic growth. Therefore, it is of great significance to construct a dynamic panel model and systematically study the impact of various demographic factors on regional economic growth and convergence, so as to understand and grasp the demographic changes in China and promote the coordinated development of regional economy. Based on a comprehensive review of the theoretical literature, this book first conducts a systematic analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of China's national and regional population structure and regional economic development. Second, it identifies the mechanism through which population structure affects regional economic growth and convergence and proposes research hypotheses. Subsequently, based on the neoclassical economic growth convergence model, a dynamic model is constructed to examine the influence of population structure on regional economic growth and convergence. Using panel data on population structure and economic growth from 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the central government, an empirical analysis is conducted using the SYS-GMM method. Additionally, a heterogeneity analysis is conducted with samples from the eastern, central, and western regions. Furthermore, taking into account the reality of shortened spatial and temporal distances and intensified population mobility between regions, a spatial econometric model is constructed to analyze the spatial spillover effect of population structure on regional economic growth.
The current research theory for interfacial loess landslides is relatively lagging behind. Therefore, this book provides a detailed theoretical study on the failure mechanism and calculation model of interface type loess landslides, and provides a clear theoretical derivation process and application methods. The research process involves interdisciplinary research in soil mechanics, elastic-plastic mechanics, fracture mechanics, structural mechanics, theoretical mechanics, and other disciplines, which not only reflects the multi-angle nature of research issues, but also reflects the multi-scale nature of research issues.
The conclusions of the study as follows: changes in the gender structure of the population do not have a significant impact on the speed of national and regional economic growth. On the other hand, an increase in the gender ratio in the western region may promote economic growth convergence. Secondly, population aging can reduce labor supply and savings rate, inhibit innovation, thereby impeding regional economic growth and convergence.
The influence of the rate of urbanization on economic growth shows an inverted U-shaped pattern. Initially, urbanization promotes economic growth, but excessive urbanization may hinder it. The eastern region has the highest urbanization rate and experiences an inverted U-shaped impact on economic growth, whereas the central and western regions benefit from linearly positive effects of urbanization. Moreover, the improvement of urbanization rate is one of the most important factors promoting regional economic growth convergence. The enhancement of the population's educational level can promote total factor productivity and human capital in the country as a whole and each region, thereby driving economic growth. It also stands as one of the most crucial factors promoting regional economic growth. Additionally, considering spatial factors, the aging of the population has a positive effect on the interaction of regional economic growth.
Based on the above conclusions, this book proposes the following policy recommendations: First, adhere to the concept of gender equality and alleviate the pressure caused by the "marriage squeeze". Second, improve the pension system and vigorously develop the "silver economy". Third, promote the coordinated development of new urbanization and prevent "pseudo-urbanization" and "counter-urbanization". Fourth, implement the three major strategies of innovation-driven, science and education revitalization, and talent power. Fifth, strive to promote the upgrading of the employment structure and give full play to the important role of the tertiary industry in absorbing labor.
Junfang Sun
Soochow University
Suzhou, Jiangsu, China
June 16, 2023
Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research background and significance 1
1.1.1 Research background 1
1.1.2 Research significance 3
1.2 Definition of related concepts 4
1.2.1 Population structure 4
1.2.2 Economic growth and convergence 6
1.3 Research content and method 7
1.3.1 Research content 7
1.3.2 Research method 9
1.4 Research innovation 9
2 Theoretical basis and literature review 11
2.1 Theoretical basis 11
2.1.1 Theories related to population structure 11
2.1.2 Regional economic growth and convergence related theories 15
2.2 Relevant studies 18
2.2.1 Research on economic effects of population structure 18
2.2.2 Research on regional economic growth and convergence 26
2.2.3 Research comment 28
3 Population structure and regional economic development status and space-time evolution analysis 29
3.1 Analysis of current situation and spatio-temporal evolution of population structure 29
3.1.1 Analysis of current status and spatio-temporal evolution of population gender structure 29
3.1.2 Population age structure status and spatio-temporal evolution analysis 33
3.1.3 Current situation and spatio-temporal evolution of urban-rural population structure 38
3.1.4 Current situation and spatio-temporal evolution of population education structure 42
3.1.5 Current situation and spatial-temporal evolution of population employment structure 46
3.2 Analysis of regional economic development status and spatio-temporal evolution 54
4 Analysis on the influence mechanism of population structure on regional economic growth and convergence 61
4.1 Mechanism of population gender structure affecting regional economic growth and convergence 61
4.2 Mechanism of population age structure affecting regional economic growth and convergence 63
4.3 Mechanism of urban-rural population structure affecting regional economic growth and convergence 65
4.4 Mechanism of population education structure affecting regional economic growth and convergence 67
4.5 Mechanism of population employment structure affecting regional economic growth and convergence 69
5 Empirical analyses of the influence of population structure on regional economic growth and convergence 71
5.1 Model establishment and variable setting 71
5.1.1 Model establishment 71
5.1.2 Variable selection 73
5.1.3 Data sources 76
5.2 Descriptive statistics and variance inflation factor test 76
5.3 Analysis of baseline regression results 77
5.4 Heterogeneity analysis 83
6 Analysis of the spatial spillover effects of population structure on regional economic growth. 90
6.1 Tests of Spatial correlation 90
6.2 Selection of spatial measurement models 91
6.3 Selection of spatial measurement models 92
6.4 The results and analysis of spatial Durbin model 93
6.5 The tests of robustness 97
7 Conclusions and policy recommendations 99
7.1 Conclusions 99
7.2 Policies and recommendations 102
7.3 Prospects 107
References 108
Readership
This book should be useful for students, scientists, engineers and professionals working in the areas of optoelectronic packaging, photonic devices, semiconductor technology, materials science, polymer science, electrical and electronics engineering. This book could be used for one semester course on adhesives for photonics packaging designed for both undergraduate and graduate engineering students.
